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I draft from the 10th position. At 10, I'm gonna go receiver. In the first two rounds, I'm gonna go receiver. essentially the top of the draft is saying to the back half of the draft that I'm going to have way better high end running back output than you. The back half of the draft must respond with, well we're going to have way better wide receiver value than you. with that being said, the top half with elite RB production has to respond with wide receiver plays because the position is hollowed out very quickly by starting with a running back. so we could expect the top half in rounds two and three to respond with a lot of wide receiver plays.

In response, the back half of the draft should respond with a high-end RB tier for that stage of the draft. Omari and Hamptons, the Kenneth Walkers. From there,

Best outside WRs - Outside WRs have higher TD value which is important for .5 PPR

Marvin Mims

Players who won and lost after the draft

Values: https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/the-gurus-top-10-underdog-fantasy-adp-values#/

The value picks are the picks you feel are stinkers at their price level (Others probably do too and that's the value. Be greedy when others are fearful)

https://www.rotoviz.com/2023/04/using-regression-tree-analysis-to-better-understand-wr-prospects-predict-where-they-will-be-drafted-and-project-the-2023-wr-class/
2023 Prospect Tiers
Tier 1 – Elite Potential
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jordan Addison
Tier 2 – Very Strong
Zay Flowers
Quentin Jonhston[4]
Jalin Hyatt[5]
Tier 3 – Strong 
Josh Downs[6]
Marvin Mims
Rashee Rice
Nathaniel Dell
Tyler Scott
A.T. Perry
Tier 4 – Okay
Cedric Tillman
Jayden Reed
Kayshon Boutte
Tier 5 – Weak
Jonathon Mingo
Xavier Hutchinson
Trey Palmer
Tier 6 – Very Weak
Michael Wilson
Parker Washington
Charlie Jones
Dontayvion Wicks
Andrei Iosivas
Tier 7 – Just About Zero Hope
Dontay Demus Jr.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
Rakim Jarrett
Puka Nacua

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-8s-kkI5u4&ab_channel=UnderdogFantasyFootball
218lbs is the avg weight of rbs in top 20. weight biggest predictor factor in success
Roshon Johson
Deneric Prince

Draft Tips

The league tends to 
Highly value RBs
Undervalue top TEs
Wait on QBs
Run on WRs in RD 3-4

Interesting Targets
Drake London
Courtland Sutton
Breece Hall
Kyle Pitts
Christian Kirk!!
Has an incredible deep catch rate over expectation paired with Trevor Lawrence

Why I'm probably going to pass on Kyle Pitts
Mariota doesn't throw often 
Arthur Smith's offense will throw ~500 times
If Pitts captures a high of 21% that's only good for 108 tgs, 73 recs on a 68% catch rate

Irv Smith is a great late round buy.
If he can capture 19% of the tgt share of 580 throws on a 65% rate
93 tgs, 60 recs, 720 yards

Courtland Sutton is a screaming buy at his price and you can feel justified in reaching
Gabriel Davis is a screaming buy
JuJu Smith Schuster is a screaming buy with a large room for error
Marquise Brown

ANCHOR RB + TE + WR/WR/WR/WR/WR + Late QB
You want to be done with WRs by round 9/10 to start picking up value RBs
If you have a top 5 pick, trade out of your 2nd pick for a 3rd and a 5th from someone in the back half of the draft
Dameon Pierce on Houston v. Marlon Mack
Tyrion Davis-Price is a good player!

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