Logic of Failure Compressed Notes

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Intro

Why is failure common in Human Decision Making?
Human decision making evolved to solve the immediate ad-hoc problems (No food, no water, how to survive)
Failure to look outside of solving immediate problems causes side effects and long-term repercussions not thought of 
This failure is descriptive among even intelligent individuals, as seen in our policymaking 
Failure isn't happenstance, it's a predictable pattern
Complex problems forces us into ineffective ways of thinking that makes the problem grow in complexity as well as making failure more likely
By understanding these predictable thought patterns, we can become better problem solvers and avert failure

Chapter 2: The Demands

What elements of a decision introduce the most error?
The Common Elements in Intricate Situations
Complexity
Complexity comes from the outcome of multiple variables being connected to each other either directly or indirectly
The more variables and the greater their interdependence, the greater the system's complexity
Interdependence in variable outcomes means it's unlikely one action will result in change in the system
What is needed is structural knowledge, "If X increases, then y will decrease, and if x decreases then Y will increase"
Intransparence
The inability to see the variables and their outcome that are important in understanding the system
Internal Dynamics
Dynamic Systems move on their own
Some systems create time pressures that force us to make decisions faster
We have to understand the whole system over time
Incomplete or Incorrect Understanding of the system
Complexity is not objective but subjective.
Someone with experience in the dynamics of a system will be able to "chunk" information to simplify it. These are called "supersignals"
Complexity must be understood in terms of an individual and their point of view
The sum of assumptions in a persons mind about a system and how it's different variables connect, is called a "reality model" 
A reality model can be implicit with the person not aware of their reality model (intuition) or explicit with the person being able to communicate it.
A person's reality model can be right, wrong, complete or incomplete. As a rule, it will be incomplete and wrong and it is good idea to keep aware of that

What is the solution to these factors causing error?
Goals --> Models --> Predictions --> Plans --> Decisions --> Actions --> Review
Goals 
Defining goals is the first step in dealing with a complex problem. More often than not, it's not clear what exactly we want to achieve
Stating a goal comparatively ("better, faster, easier") indicates that we don't know precisely what we want
Clear goals are requirement. Before forming judgement and coming to decisions, we need to know what we want.
Clear goals will give us guidelines and criteria for assessing the efficacy of measures we might propose.
Reality Models & Predictions
Creating a model of the situation requires us to gather information, arrange it into a story of what has happened, what is happening, and what will happen
We need a cohesive picture that helps us filter the important from the important. That finds order in chaos
Thinking in time trends will aid in preparing for the future
Plans, Decisions and Action and Review
Once a picture of the situation is available, then we can figure out what we should do, if anything at all
We might also have to decide out of the many things we can do, which single or few things we should do.
Then we must act steadily. 
Review
We can't abandon an action too soon before the effects can take effect on the system. 
At the same time we can't stick stubbornly to a plan that will not work and is doomed to fail
We must be prepared to acknowledge that a solution is not working
Questions to help review include
Were the premises for my actions correct?
Do I have to go back to an earlier phase of the planning process and retool?
Do I have to gather information again because the information I based my actions on appear to be wrong?
Do I have to develop new action plans because the ones I have chosen are not working?
Do I have to revise my whole reality model of the situation?
Chapter 3 Goals

Why system goals are fundamentally important?
It is important to understand the links between goals. We cannot do only one thing
The interrelationship of variables in a system brings with it an interrelationship among goals
Goals can be positively linked, negatively linked, intermediary linked (one goal affecting two variables (A --> B and C), or one goal, affecting another goal, affecting another goal (A --> B --> C)) or not linked at all
Most people only focus on explicit goals, which leads to implicit goals of a system running wild and unmanaged. Solving problem A may create problem B
"People concern themselves with the problems they have not the ones they don't have"
To best solve our problems and avoid problems we should
Prefer positive goals to negative goals
Translate unclear goals to clear ones and expose the multifacetedness of problems
Know when to use specific goals over generic goals  and vice versa
Specific goals are great for clarity
General goals are great for direction without being bogged by analysis paralysis 
State all implicit goals, possible side effects as well
We can't solve all the problems at once, it's best to list and prioritize the problems. We might also find interdependencies that allows us to focus on a central problem where we can invest our efforts in
We might also be able to delegate unrelated goals that are low on the list
When we set out to change things, we need to pay more attention to the things we want to leave at the very least, unchanged. An analysis of all explicit and implicit goals gives us that chance and prevents generating problems like the heads of the Hydra

How do I classify goals to predict their efficacy?
Positive Goals v. Negative Goals
Positive goals act to bring about a certain desired condition or state
Negative goals act to change or avoid a desired condition or state
Negative goals are inherently less defined, since an avoiding of a condition or state can lead you anywhere
Generic Goals v. Specific Goals v. Unclear Goal
A general goal is defined by a single or few criteria
A specific goal is defined by many criteria
An unclear goal are goals that lack a criterion by which we can decide definitively whether or not the goal has been achieved

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Logic of Failure Compressed Notes

Review Questions

Todos

Sensemaker