Scott Barrett

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Upside Wins Championships

(Feel free to skip)
One can draw a countless number of parallels between playing fantasy football and investing in the stock market.
We can start with the banal and obvious:
* You want to load up on blue chip assets – tried and true producers like Apple, Microsoft, and Julio Jones.
* You want a diversified portfolio. You shouldn’t be too overloaded at one position, or too weak at another.
Or, we can get a little more creative:
* The coronavirus pandemic has made for a turbulent global economy and has impacted different stocks and different industries in a myriad of (mostly negative) ways. So too, will it impact fantasy football. With less group practice time, perhaps it’s worth downgrading certain players, as quarterback-to-receiver rapport and understanding of one’s playbook are so important to playing time and fantasy success. Just as the airline industry has been devalued by investors, perhaps so should (to a much smaller degree) rookies, teams implementing a new playbook, and receivers catching passes from a new quarterback.
Fundamentally, by investing in the stock market or by playing fantasy football, you’re making a prediction based on how a given asset – a company or a football player – is going to perform in the future. In both cases you can accomplish this by analyzing trends, poring over spreadsheets, and building projections. In both cases, the outcome is largely out of your control. And, actually, according to MIT’s Sports Lab, the outcome is more out of your control (more luck-driven, less skill-driven) in stock market investing than in daily fantasy football (essentially the day-trading equivalent of fantasy football).
I can go on and on. As countless the number of comparisons to be made is, there are likely even more blog posts already highlighting them.
However, in today’s article, I wanted to highlight the one way in which these two things were diametrically opposed.
The Major Difference
For years – far too long – I thought there wasn’t any difference between selecting stocks for my portfolio and drafting players for fantasy.
I learned from Warren Buffett that the best investors look for companies with a high margin of safety – what he often referred to as “the three most important words in investing.” Basically, the greater a company’s intrinsic value relative to its cost (market price), the higher the margin of safety, and the better the investment.
I assumed this strategy translated perfectly to fantasy football as: “If you draft the best values you’re going to profit.” This is sort of true, only I was wrong in my assessment of value. The best values aren’t necessarily the players most likely to beat their ADP, or even the players with the greatest disconnect between their fantasy projections and their ADP-based expectation.
With investing, you’re not actually competing against anyone. You’re just trying to maximize the return on your investment. Your upside is limitless. But your downside is horrific – financial ruin. With fantasy football, you’re competing against (typically) nine or 11 other teams. Your upside is a first-place finish. Your downside is (typically) the same as all the other teams – finishing outside of first place.. Your chance at turning a profit is probably around one in 12, and your profit margin is capped at something close to 12 times your buy-in. In contrast, the S&P500 has finished in the green in 32 of the past 37 years, and some investors have made billions of dollars in profits. It’s a little more nuanced than this, but clearly downside and risk don’t mean the same thing in investing as they do in fantasy football.
Buffett has been quoted as saying:
“The first rule of investing is ‘Don’t lose money,’ and the second rule is ‘Never forget the first rule.’”
At the heart of investing lies the miracle of compound interest – what Albert Einstein referred to as the eighth wonder of the world. This is what your entire investment strategy should be centered around – maximizing the rate at which you compound capital over time. Once that is understood, it’s easy to see why the best investors are more fearful of loss than they are enticed by gains. Investor and author of The Dao of Capital Mark Spitznagel explains:
“That’s because, you see, it is the big losses that really matter to compounding— more than the small losses, and more than even the big gains for that matter. If you don’t believe me, consider this: Lose 50% one year and it will take almost two +50% years to get you back to even. Steep losses just matter more than anything else… But investors get this wrong, all the time, as they chase the average moment or path.”
With investments, there’s probably a threshold where the downside is significant enough to never outweigh the potential rewards of a given investment. However, in fantasy football, something closer to the opposite is true. Fundamentally, a player’s upside is typically far more valuable than their downside is detrimental, and, at a certain point (later in the draft), downside becomes wholly irrelevant.
The 10-Year Treasury Note is an extremely valuable commodity in the world of investing, but in fantasy, similarly low-risk / low-reward investments are rarely worth your time. And a high-risk / high-reward fantasy investment in the 12th round is far more worthwhile than a zero-risk / low-return or even a low-risk / medium-return investment in the same round.
In any case, my initial strategy – something along the lines of “draft the players most-likely to beat their ADP” – was flawed, because my assessment of value was wrong. Merely beating your ADP isn’t enough. This is an extremely common mistake.
We can steal from Spitznagel and repurpose his quote for fantasy as, “Elite scorers just matter more than anything else… But fantasy players get this wrong, all the time, as they chase the average projection or the most-likely outcome.”
Real-life Examples
By ADP, James White was typically the 25th running back drafted last year. He finished the season 19th at the position in PPR scoring. You’d think he netted you a small profit, but that wasn’t the case at all.
In ESPN leagues, only 7.7% of White owners won their Championship, which ranked well below the league average rate (10%). In other words, teams who did not draft White were more likely to win their championships than teams who did. In best-ball leagues, we see something similar, White yielded a win rate of 8.6%, which ranked just barely above the league average win rate (8.3%).
Ultimately, White was a bad draft pick (pre- and post-hindsight) because steady mid-range RB2 production isn't very valuable, even with an RB3 price-tag. In a game where only one team walks away with a trophy, White’s +2.2 fantasy points per game over a replacement (waiver wire) player is nothing compared to, let’s say, Austin Ekeler’s +6.0 fantasy points per game over White. This is also a player who, barring injury (pretty much every running back has injury upside), has never shown any semblance of an upside. He flashed at times in 2018, but only when both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel were hurt. And by drafting White, you missed out on an actual league-winner like Austin Ekeler (rostered on 35% of ESPN’s Championship teams), who was routinely drafted just a few spots after White.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, consider the obscene dominance of Christian McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson. Just drafting one of those two players (in a game where you typically start nine) made you four or five(!) times more likely to make it to your league’s Championship Round.
Like the pareto principle, the vast majority of fantasy championships are won on the backs of only a few players. Actually, there might only be a handful of true league-winners in any given year. But that was never going to be within White’s range of outcomes. And it was obvious. Just like it was obvious 2019 drafters were sleeping on Jackson’s potential of being one of those players.
In August, I called Jackson the “single-greatest value in current drafts at any position.” That prediction proved correct: he averaged the most fantasy points per game of any quarterback in any season ever, paying massive dividends on a 12th round ADP. Just by correctly identifying that one breakout player – ignoring whatever you might have done in the first 11 rounds – you had a 41% chance of making it to your league’s Championship Round.
Then again, Jackson was a sharp pick. If you were sharp enough to draft him, you probably made several other sharp selections elsewhere in your draft. We can’t say the same thing for Christian McCaffrey, however, who was sort of just the default No. 2 pick in fantasy drafts.
However, the edge that that No. 2 draft spot and McCaffrey gave you was massive, maybe the biggest of any one player this past decade. Even though McCaffrey drafters probably weren’t as sharp as Jackson drafters. Even though McCaffrey was 11 rounds more expensive (Jackson’s margin of safety was higher).
McCaffrey was still easily the MVP of the 2019 fantasy season. If you owned McCaffrey last year, you were essentially a coinflip (48%) to make it to your league’s championship round.
According to Mike Beers of Rotoviz, in best-ball leagues last year, teams who owned both Christian McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson won their leagues an insane 64% of their time. Compare that to teams who had Dak Prescott, Dalvin Cook, and A.J. Brown (three of the best value picks you could have made at each position) but no McCaffrey or Jackson… they won their leagues just 28% of the time.
Of the 2018 league-winners – Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, James Conner, Nick Chubb – at least one or two of these was pre-hindsight obvious as well. But who are the players with league-winning upside (or at least underrated upside) in 2020? And what do you look for? I’ll lay this out in a series of follow-up articles. Check back here later in the week:
Quarterbacks - Posted Tues May 19
Running Backs - Posted Wed May 20
Wide Receivers - Posted Thurs May 21
Tight Ends - Posted Fri May 22
Conclusion
Too long, didn’t read?
Basically…
Upside wins championships.
In fantasy football drafts, aim to be a power hitter. It’s more valuable to hit a home run (by drafting a league-winner like McCaffrey or Jackson) than a bunch of singles.
At the very least, this is extremely true in the later rounds.
Let’s consider, as an example, Antonio Brown. He is currently unemployed, will likely face a multi-game suspension even if he returns, and very realistically might never play football again. He’s currently being drafted in the 18th round as the 79th wide receiver off the board. As I see it, he’s currently the best value pick in drafts and it’s not very close.

What is his risk? Brown’s downside is the same as all other players, zero points in a worst-case scenario. Of course, Brown’s chances of scoring zero points are much higher than for many of the players being drafted around him. Even so, his current ADP is absolutely stupid. That’s because Antonio Brown’s upside is Antonio Brown. Prior to last season, Brown had finished fifth, first, first, first, and first at the position in total fantasy points. His upside is almost unrivaled, and, with an 18th-round price-tag, it’s easy league-winning potential.
Sure, his odds of scoring zero fantasy points is higher than most, but, in terms of value to your roster, zero fantasy points also isn’t far off the base case scenario of many of the wide receivers being drafted around him. Consider the wide receivers all going immediately behind Brown (Devin Funchess, Russell Gage, Steven Sims, Bryan Edwards, Chase Claypool, Miles Boykin, and Chris Conley). None of these players have WR1 or WR2 upside. And, even if one of them exceeds their ADP-based expectation (let’s say 8.5 fantasy points per game, or 67th at the position last year), that’s still well below starter-worthy production.
In most leagues, zero fantasy points per game for a wide receiver is worth about as much as 8.5 fantasy points per game. Or, fewer fantasy points per game than what Taylor Gabriel, Chris Conley, Duke Williams, Greg Ward, Nelson Agholor, Zach Pascal, and Auden Tate averaged last year. Were those players winning you any games last year? In fact, were they ever cracking your starting lineup? Or, were they even rostered? And that’s sort of the point. We’ll always have the Waiver Wire to fall back on. If Brown isn’t on an NFL team by Week 1, you can quickly drop him and pick up any player from your free agency pool. And, I’d bet you can easily find a number of players who will average 8.5 fantasy points per game. But, again, why would you want that? Points scored on the bench don’t count, and 8.5 fantasy points per game is never cracking your starting lineup. Instead, swing for the fences again.
One last time: prioritize upside. A player’s best-case projection is more important than their base projection, which is more important than their worst-case projection. With ADP being more a reflection of a player’s most likely outcome, the optimal strategy also comes at a discount.
As we go farther along in the draft the more important upside becomes. Upside maybe isn’t our chief concern in the first round. Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott have about the same upside – it’s sky-high, hence why they’re drafted in the first round. In the fifth round, it matters a great deal more. In the double-digit rounds, upside is just about all that matters. It should be the driving force behind every pick you make.
Who will I start at quarterback if my QB1 gets hurt? Who will I start at wide receiver when Julio Jones is on bye? Who cares? You don’t need a reliable RB3 to fill your flex spot. You need a league-winner… and you maximize your chances of finding one by placing a premium on upside.
Special thanks to Michael Beers (RotoViz), Tristan Cockcroft (ESPN), Adam Harstad (FBG), and Brian Malone for their help with this article.
P.S. Be careful not to conflate risk with upside, as many often do. It does not necessarily follow that a higher risk asset offers more upside, though they may often be inversely correlated.

Every summer, I write an article called “Anatomy of a League-Winner.” And every winter it gets nominated for a Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award.

Basically, it’s a deep macro dive into positional value. For instance, last year, I concluded that “high-end RBs are worth roughly 1.4X as much as high-end WRs, which are worth roughly 2.7X as much as high-end TEs and QBs, which are worth roughly 1.5X as much as high-end defenses.” There’s a lot that goes into this, but primarily, positional value is determined by factors such as scarcity, replaceability, and value relative to in-position peers.
I decided not to write that article this year because I didn’t really see the point. Why? Because the micro is the macro. The optimal draft strategy is not one based on positions, but one based on players: Should you go Late-Round QB? Should you punt the TE position? Should you take a Zero-RB approach? These questions are almost entirely dependent upon where the value is in the current year you’re drafting. If 2024 ADP is doing a terrible job of pricing RBs – e.g. if there’s an RB in Round 12 I have ranked as a top-10 option, and then there are multiple other RBs going later who are mispriced by multiple rounds – then yes, Zero-RB would be the optimal approach in 2024.
So, if you want to know the optimal draft strategy for 2024, you’re going to have to read my 2024 Draft Guide.
But here’s the abridged version of Anatomy of a League Winner for those of you who were looking for it.
Quarterback (Historical / Macro Thoughts)
QB has historically been one of the most overrated positions in fantasy football.
It’s the deepest and the least scarce of the big four positions, while also offering the most parity. Even when you do hit on a top scorer (even in the later rounds), it doesn’t ever move the needle to the same degree as with an RB, WR, or TE.
I’ve long recommended a “Late-Round QB” approach. And this has served us exceedingly well over the years: In 2019, Lamar Jackson was my “must-draft QB” (ADP: QB14). In 2021, Jalen Hurts was my “must-draft QB” (ADP: QB12). In 2022, Justin Fields was my “must-draft QB” (ADP: QB17). And it seemed like last year Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB15) would have been a league winner had he stayed healthy.
But it’s not just my ability to spot late-round league-winners at the positions. It’s not just the opportunity cost of foregoing an early-round quarterback (passing up more valuable RBs and WRs). It’s that even if we full-on punt, we’re going to be absolutely fine.
What happens if I full-on punt the position? Even if you drafted zero QBs, you’re going to fine. If you just streamed the position – i.e. if you started the best available (by weekly projections) QB on waivers every week – you’d be able to cobble together mid to low-end QB1 production from your waiver wire. Or at least, those are the results returned by J.J. Zachariason on his “Living the Stream” podcast. Keep in mind, Zachariason puts himself at an inherent disadvantage, not being able to hold QBs with a >50% rostership rate. In reality, he could have added any of the following QBs and never dropped them: C.J. Stroud in Week 5 (overall QB6 from that point on), Brock Purdy in Week 7 (overall QB5 from that point on), Jordan Love in Week 10 (overall QB3 from that point on), or Joe Flacco in Week 13 (fantasy’s QB2 over the last four weeks of the fantasy season)… And 2023 wasn’t exactly an outlier in this regard. This has always been true of the QB position – the waiver wire represents an atypically high floor and ceiling(!) relative to the other positions.

Graphic courtesy of the Late Round QB Draft Guide.
For all of these reasons, it’s no surprise a Late-Round QB strategy has long reigned as king — in something like 11 of the past 12 seasons, you were better off being one of the last teams in your draft to take a QB rather than one of the first.
Running Back (Historical / Macro Thoughts)
Highest-end RBs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football.
The RB position is the most important position in fantasy, and there isn’t a close second. If you win or lose your league, it’s probably because you rostered the right or wrong running backs more than anything else.
I can write a lot of words expanding on all this, but let me save you some time… The historical data is largely irrelevant in 2024 because today’s RB landscape is almost unrecognizable from what it was pre-2022.
In the current landscape, the RB position is a mess. There are fewer great RBs – the historic 2017 class is now past the age cliff, and the early-round RBs from the more recent draft classes have largely underwhelmed. Further, bell cows appear to be a dying breed in today’s NFL.
Following the move to an 18-week schedule, the likelihood of RB injuries increases (RBs suffer injuries at a slightly higher rate than WRs), and wear and tear takes a greater toll on the players who touch the ball the most. Because of this, more and more teams are adopting a committee backfield (and moving away from a singular bell-cow back), to help lighten the load and keep their RBs healthy for the full season and come playoff time. Over the last two years, when doing my Annual Post-Draft Presser Review series, this was something explicitly stated by nearly every team who drafted an RB on Day 1 or Day 2.
This inflates the value of the guaranteed bell cows and highest-end RBs, pushes down the value of the RBs in the next few tiers, and increases the upside of later-round RBs. There are a lot more “ambiguous backfields” in today’s NFL, which means a wider range of outcomes. That’s something we’re going to want to be leaning into (chasing upside), especially with RBs being cheaper today than they’ve ever been before.
What happens if I full-on punt the position? If you had zero good RBs? Yeah, you’re probably screwed.
What happens if I partially punted the position, if I had a good RB1 but no RB2? You might be OK! The waiver wire typically offers you very little floor at the position, but it does offer you a significant amount of upside (unlike the WR position). It’s probably not something we want to banking on, but Kyren Williams and Zamir White were league-winning waiver adds a season ago.
So, what is the optimal approach? RB-RB because RBs are so valuable? Zero RB or Hero-RB because of the shifting landscape? Ultimately, it all depends on where the value is. It depends on how closely current ADP aligns to my rankings. It depends on how much value there is at the RB position in the middle-to-late rounds relative to WRs. And that’s an answer I can only give to our subscribers who have access to my paywalled Draft Guide.
But I can tell you this.
In 2024 drafts, the Big-3 RBs – Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson – are the top 3 players in my overall rankings. Why? Because a highest-end RB is the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. Everything I said in the first two paragraphs of this section still holds true. Last year 58.9% of all Christian McCaffreyteams made it to the the finals on ESPN. That was by far the most of any player, and nearly twice as much as that of any other Round 1 pick (Tyreek Hill came next-closest at 30.5%). Yes, the landscape has shifted in favor of WRs in the aggregate. But the rise of committee backfields, the decline in RB talent, and the scarcity of bell cow RBs or RBs with “legendary upside” only further enhance the value of these top-3 RBs.
This is my recommendation and this is the route I’m going in my own drafts. That’s partly because of what I described above, but also because I’m seeing so much more value in the middle-to-late-round WRs. But I won’t fault you at all if you’d rather draft a WR with your Round 1 pick, gravitating instead toward the safety they provide. Ideally, my Draft Guide will give you enough league-winners in the later rounds for you to win with either approach.
To the credit for Zero-RB proponents and highlighting the points made earlier, I really don’t mind punting my RB2 or RB3 in drafts. At the very least, I’m far less inclined to go with a RB-RB or even RB-WR-RB start in 2024. But if you do go this route, just make sure you’re not leaving your draft without my Exodia RB (currently going in Rounds 8-10).
Wide Receiver (Historical / Macro Thoughts)
In most seasons, you were better off prioritizing RBs over WRs in the earliest rounds of your draft. But not the last two years – over the last two years WRs have trumped RBs by a sizable margin. And even the year before that, it was at least a tie, if not a slight edge to WRs.
To be clear, this is now firmly priced into the market. From Mike Clay: “Five years ago, 10 of the first 12 picks (and 14 of the top 20) were RBs. In 2024, only four of the first 12 picks (and 10 of the first 36) are RBs.”
But as I alluded to in the RB section, I’m nearly certain this is evidence of a shifting fantasy landscape rather than this being two back-to-back outlier years.
I don’t think the NFL has ever had six WRs playing at the level Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown are currently. (Throw Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp onto that list if they can look anything like they did two seasons ago.) Further, we’re coming off of some historically great WR classes (2021, 2022, 2024), which look historically great in comparison to some lackluster RB classes. WRs are breaking out earlier than ever, and the majority of these WRs are now entering what would be their typical peak seasons.
One of the added benefits of taking an RB-RB start to your draft was that it was always easier to find league-winning WRs in the middle to late rounds of your draft. Remember, in 2021, Cooper Kupp (Round 5), Ja’Marr Chase (Round 8), and Deebo Samuel (Round 10) were all going in the middle to late rounds of your draft. But in the last few years, ADP has done a terrific job of pricing WRs based on their league-winning upside, while doing a terrible job at the RB position.
But again, every year is its own unique special snowflake. And in 2024, I am seeing a number of egregiously mispriced must-draft WRs in the later rounds of your draft. In my Draft Guide, you’ll find multiple WRs with a Round 2 grade who are currently being selected in Rounds 4-6 of your draft. For this reason, I do think you can win your league with a RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB approach if you decide to go that route, even if I’m not often going that route myself.
Tight End (Historical / Macro Thoughts)
RB is easily the most important position in fantasy football. WR is a close second. And then there’s a steep dropoff where QBs and TEs are more or less tied if we count Travis Kelce, who has long been one of the most valuable players in fantasy – more valuable than any QB, and comparably valuable to the 2nd- or 3rd-highest scoring WR in any given season. Or at least this has been the case up until last year when he declined in all key efficiency metrics (in his age 34 season) and fell from 3rd in route share to 8th. He still finished 1st in FPG, but scored 4.0 fewer FPG than he did in 2022.
Historically, if peak Kelce is excluded, the TE position is fairly worthless. And you’re better off full-on punting the position. That’s partly due to positional value, but also because in every season, there’s seemingly always 1-2 TEs with latest-round ADPs who ultimately finish as a mid-range TE1 or better, or 2-5 latest-round TEs who would rank top-5 in win-rate.
What happens if I full-on punt the position? The above point is a massive one. This is the more extreme example, but even if you draft zero TEs your team isn’t going to be at a massive disadvantage, so long as you get a little lucky or work the waiver wire better than most of your leaguemates. The floor the waiver wire offers you at the TE position isn’t as high as it is with QBs, but the upside is (historically) extremely high. Things could be pretty rough if this isn’t the case, but there’s a very good chance you’ll be able to find a dependable every-week starter and fantasy TE1 off waivers at some point within the first few weeks of the season.
The TE position has historically been one marked by immense inequality. In any given season, there are 1-2 Oligarchs (last year there wasn’t one, the year before that, it was only Kelce, the year before that, it was Mark Andrews and Kelce, and the year before that, it was Kelce and Darren Waller) ruling over the rest of the peasants. This has meant that historically you wanted to take a barbell approach at the position: draft Travis Kelce or wait until double-digit rounds to grab multiple high-upside TEs. If you ended up weak at the position, that’s fine. Because just about every team (minus your league’s Kelce owner) was weak at the position, and this is the position you do want to be weakest at.
All of this being said, things look dramatically different at the TE position this year. Especially if we assume Travis Kelce will be closer to who he was in 2023 (barely the fantasy TE1) than in 2017-2022 (far-and-away the TE1, basically putting up mid-range fantasy WR1 numbers). And then, given the breakouts of players like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, and David Njoku, deepening the top-end of the position. You can argue there is no Oligarch TE this year, but the upper class of the position is now deeper by about 4-7 names.
With things changing so much, our strategy should change as well – the micro is the macro and every fantasy season is its own unique special snowflake.
I discuss this all in more detail here:

Defense & Kicker (Historical / Macro Thoughts)
Yeah…
In most leagues, I’m typically not even drafting a kicker or a defense. Instead, I’ll be drafting high-upside flex-eligible players. And then, right before Week 1, I’ll drop the two worst players on my team, and pick up whichever K and DEF I like best on waivers.
If that isn’t an option, or if I’m drafting particularly late in the offseason, I’ll always draft a kicker and then a defense (in that order) with my last two picks.
Who am I taking? It really doesn’t matter. Usually, whichever K ranks highest in our projections (or ADP) and whichever DEF has the best Week 1 matchup. (Cincinnati has a cushy Week 1 matchup against the Patriots. The Seahawks open up against the Broncos and then the Patriots.)
ADP is generally really bad at predicting who the top kickers and defenses are going to be in a given season. K and DEF are also extremely deep, very replaceable, and not worth much at all in terms of winning your league.
In real terms, you have a much better chance at returning top-three production by streaming DEFs than you do of drafting the first DEF off the board. All of this is explained in more detail here. (TLDR: The last time I wrote a “Streaming Defenses” column I — very easily — returned top-three production.)

Unstarred

Dunk (exclude from study)

My stud QB is facing the #1 defense in the league. I have a chance to start another QB who also plays with my WR and TE who is good but still a bit of an unknown. What should I do?

Based on the worldview provided, here's how I would approach your dilemma:

1. Prioritize upside: The key principle here is to focus on the option with the highest potential upside. While your stud QB is likely a safe bet, the matchup against the #1 defense could limit their ceiling.

2. Look for stacking opportunities: The fact that your alternative QB plays with your WR and TE is extremely intriguing. This stack could potentially explode for massive points if things go well, which aligns with the "swing for the fences" mentality.

3. Embrace uncertainty: The alternative QB being "a bit of an unknown" shouldn't deter you. In fact, this uncertainty could be a positive if it means others are undervaluing their potential.

4. Consider the contrarian play: Going against conventional wisdom by benching your stud QB could give you an edge if it pays off, as most other managers might stick with the "safer" option.

5. Analyze the full context: Look deeper into the alternative QB's situation. Is there a reason to believe they might break out this week? Consider factors like offensive scheme, recent team developments, or weaknesses in their opponent's defense.

Given these considerations, I would lean towards starting the alternative QB along with your WR and TE. This decision maximizes your upside potential and gives you a chance at a game-changing performance from your stack. It's a bold move, but one that aligns with the aggressive, upside-chasing strategy outlined in the worldview.

Remember, in fantasy football, it's often better to take calculated risks on high-upside plays rather than settling for safe, mediocre production. If this stack hits, it could be a league-winning decision. If it doesn't, you've still made a sound strategic choice based on upside potential.

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How do I find champion winning upside in the middle of the season?

Midseason upside hunting is all about identifying breakout candidates before they explode. Focus on players with expanding roles due to injuries or depth chart changes. Look for talented backups who could seize starting jobs, or receivers developing chemistry with their QBs.

The waiver wire is your goldmine here. Be aggressive in picking up players showing flashes of potential, even if they haven't fully broken out yet. Don't be afraid to drop "safe" bench players for high-upside lottery tickets.

Remember, one or two waiver wire gems can absolutely transform your team. It's not about finding steady producers - you're looking for the next league-winner who'll massively outperform expectations. Stay glued to practice reports, target shares, and snap counts to spot these diamonds in the rough before your league mates do.

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I am trying to optimize my bench. I have 3 players end of my bench. Noah Brown, D'Onta Foreman, and Cam Akers. Noah Brown is now with the Commanders and is playing an X role with a lot of air yards and has a high TPRR. D'Onta Forman plays the 1A in the Browns offense that is rushing based and is also the goalline back. Cam Akers is the backup to Mixon. Mixon is out with an injury and Akers is starting. I want to pick up Khalil Herbert who is currently a backup RB to DeAndre Swift in Chicago but is a better runner and has a chance to win the job outright by midseason. What should I do?

Your instinct to chase upside is spot-on. In fantasy, we're not playing for mediocrity - we're swinging for the fences. Khalil Herbert is exactly the type of high-upside lottery ticket we're looking for.

I'd drop Cam Akers without hesitation. His starting role is temporary, and even then, he's in a timeshare. Once Mixon returns, Akers' value plummets. We're not here for short-term fixes; we want league-winners.

Herbert has a real shot at taking over that Bears backfield. Swift's injury history and Herbert's superior running ability make this a powder keg of potential. This is the kind of move that can win you a championship if it hits.

Remember, fantasy football is about embracing volatility and chasing explosive outcomes. Don't play it safe - make the bold move and grab Herbert. He could be this year's breakout RB that carries teams to glory.

Should I trade Cam Akers and Courtland Sutton for David Njoku? My WRs are stacked and Njoku finished TE4 last season.

Absolutely not. That trade reeks of playing it safe, which is a surefire path to mediocrity in fantasy football. We're not in the business of consolidating assets for marginal upgrades - we're here to strike gold.

Njoku's TE4 finish last year is fool's gold. The tight end landscape is volatile, and chasing last year's performance is a rookie mistake. Plus, you're giving up two potential league-winners for a good-not-great tight end.

Akers, despite my earlier advice, still has massive upside if he can seize the Bengals' backfield. And Sutton? He's a prime candidate for a late-career explosion with Sean Payton at the helm.

Instead of this tepid trade, I'd be looking to package these guys for a true difference-maker with astronomical upside. Or better yet, hold onto them and wait for their values to skyrocket.

Remember, we're not playing for steady production. We're playing for league-breaking upside. This trade moves you in the wrong direction. Stay hungry, stay aggressive, and keep hunting for those league-winning moves.

Should I cut Noah Brown for Khalil Herbert? Noah Brown has a +32.9% CROE, 12.4 air yards per target, and a 30% targets per route run. Khalil Herbert is the 2nd running back in Chicago and only had 2 rushes last week. I also have the Commanders WR so correlation works in my favor if Noah Brown breaks out

Now that's a fascinating dilemma that gets to the heart of upside-chasing in fantasy football. While Khalil Herbert's potential is tantalizing, we can't ignore the explosive metrics you've laid out for Noah Brown.

Brown's numbers scream breakout potential. That +32.9% CROE (Catch Rate Over Expected) is elite, and combined with his deep targets and high TPRR (Targets Per Route Run), we're looking at a powder keg ready to explode. The correlation play with your other Commanders WR adds another layer of upside.

Herbert, while talented, is still stuck behind Swift and saw minimal usage last week. His path to relevance is less clear in the short term.

In this case, I'd actually lean towards keeping Brown. He's showing all the signs of a potential league-winner at WR, and those are rarer than breakout RBs. Plus, you're already positioned to capitalize on his success with your existing Commanders stack.

Remember, we're not just chasing any upside - we're looking for the highest probability of league-breaking performances. Right now, Brown's metrics suggest he could be on the verge of something special. Don't let go of that potential goldmine just yet.

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I have JK Dobbins you know his profile and his injury history most recently an achilles tear. He is now the focal point of a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman running offense and went off in week 1 for 28 points. Should I sell high or hold?

Hold Dobbins. This is exactly the kind of upside play we're looking for. Harbaugh and Roman's run-heavy system is a goldmine for RB production, and Dobbins has the talent to absolutely explode in it. Sure, there's injury risk, but that's baked into his price already. The potential reward here massively outweighs the risk.

Week 1 might just be the tip of the iceberg. If Dobbins stays healthy, he could be a true league-winner - the kind of player who vastly outperforms his draft position and carries teams to championships. Selling now would be leaving enormous potential value on the table.

Remember, we're not playing it safe here. We're chasing upside, and Dobbins in this offense has it in spades. Hold tight and enjoy the ride.

But what about the risk of the achilles sapping his explosiveness over the season?

You're right to consider that risk, but we can't let fear paralyze us. The upside here is simply too massive to ignore. Look, Dobbins has already shown he can produce at an elite level post-injury. That's incredibly promising.

Sure, the Achilles could be a ticking time bomb. But that's exactly why Dobbins is such a potential league-winner. Most people are scared off by the injury history, creating a market inefficiency we can exploit.

Remember, we're not trying to build a team of safe, mediocre producers. We're swinging for the fences. If Dobbins maintains this level of play, he'll be an absolute steal at his draft price. And in fantasy football, those are the moves that win championships.

Don't let the "what ifs" cloud your judgment. Embrace the risk and the potential reward that comes with it. Hold Dobbins and ride this potential breakout for all it's worth.

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Who do you think has more upside Taysom Hill who is TE eligible and being used occasionally at the goal line as a running back or Jonnu Smith now playing with the Dolphins in a Mike McDaniels scheme

Taysom Hill, hands down. His positional flexibility and goal-line usage give him massive upside that could win leagues. While Jonnu Smith has some intrigue in McDaniel's scheme, he doesn't have the game-breaking potential of Hill.

Hill's unique role as a Swiss Army knife in the Saints' offense means he could explode any given week. He's the ultimate high-upside lottery ticket - exactly the type of player we should be targeting. Smith is more of a conventional tight end play, which limits his ceiling.

Remember, we're not playing it safe here. We're swinging for the fences. Hill's unconventional usage makes him a potential league-winner if things break right. That's the kind of upside that can make or break a fantasy season.

What's your take on Hill's potential this year? Are you seeing any other unconventional players with similar upside?

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Christian McCaffery has a calf injury. I drafted his handcuff. Should I trade for Christian McCaffery or ride the handcuff/hold until I can't any longer?

Interesting dilemma you've got there. But here's the thing - we're in the business of chasing upside, not playing it safe. McCaffrey's calf injury could be your golden ticket to acquiring a league-winner at a discount.

If you can get McCaffrey without gutting your team, I'd pounce on that opportunity. His upside is unmatched when healthy, and injuries often create buy-low windows that savvy managers exploit.

Don't just settle for the handcuff - that's thinking small. Go big or go home. Make a bold move for CMC, and you could be setting yourself up for fantasy glory. Remember, it's the high-risk, high-reward plays that win championships, not playing it safe with handcuffs.

What kind of trade package are you considering? I'm curious about how aggressive you're willing to be here.

Jonathan Taylor drafted 1.07 and Diontae Johnson for Christian McCaffery and Terry McClarin

Now that's the kind of aggressive move I love to see! You're thinking big, and that's exactly how you win leagues.

Taylor at 1.07 is solid value, but he's mired in contract disputes and injury concerns. McCaffrey, on the other hand, is a potential league-winner in that 49ers offense. You're trading uncertainty for explosive upside - that's the mindset of a champion.

Swapping Diontae for McLaurin is a nice bonus too. McLaurin has that big-play ability that can win you weeks, while Diontae is more of a safe, boring PPR option.

This trade embodies the philosophy of chasing upside. You're not settling for steady production - you're swinging for the fences with CMC. If it pays off, you'll be the one laughing all the way to the championship.

I say pull the trigger. Are you feeling confident about making this move, or do you have any reservations?

My reservation is that CMC's injury lingers all year and I lose out on being able to use Jonathan Taylor (who's contract is now settled) and CMC's handcuff in my RB positions

I hear you, but that's exactly the kind of hesitation that keeps people from winning championships. You can't let fear of injury hold you back from acquiring elite talent.

Look, injuries are always a risk, but CMC's upside is astronomical. When he's on the field, he's a cheat code in fantasy. Taylor might be settled now, but he's still got his own injury concerns and a questionable offense around him.

Remember, we're not playing for a safe floor here. We're chasing league-winning upside. CMC has that in spades. Even if he misses a few games, his production when healthy could single-handedly win you weeks.

As for the handcuff, don't get too attached. Handcuffs rarely reproduce the production of the starters they're replacing. You want the real deal, not a watered-down version.

Embrace the risk. That's where the reward is. If you're not willing to take big swings like this, you're playing for second place. Are you in this to win it all, or just to avoid losing?

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Scott Barrett

My stud QB is facing the #1 defense in the league. I have a chance to start another QB who also plays with my WR and TE who is good but still a bit of an unknown. What should I do?

How do I find champion winning upside in the middle of the season?

I have JK Dobbins you know his profile and his injury history most recently an achilles tear. He is now the focal point of a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman running offense and went off in week 1 for 28 points. Should I sell high or hold?

Who do you think has more upside Taysom Hill who is TE eligible and being used occasionally at the goal line as a running back or Jonnu Smith now playing with the Dolphins in a Mike McDaniels scheme

Christian McCaffery has a calf injury. I drafted his handcuff. Should I trade for Christian McCaffery or ride the handcuff/hold until I can't any longer?

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