Better Problem Selection

🧠 Free Recall ❓ Quiz 🔍 Cues 🔮 Simulation 🥷 ShadowBox 📐 Encode Cards

The thesis behind the importance of problem selection can be broken down into a fundamental equation of progress: the value of our work is ultimately determined by the product of (1) the importance of the problem we choose to tackle and (2) how much progress we can actually make toward solving it.

Think of it as a strategic bet. Even exceptional execution on a poorly chosen problem often yields minimal impact. Conversely, even modest progress on a well-chosen problem can create tremendous value. This is why some of the most impactful discoveries and innovations weren't necessarily the most technically difficult - they were the product of identifying the right problem at the right time.

This dynamic creates an interesting tension. We must aim high enough that solving the problem would matter, but not so high that we can't make meaningful headway. It's about finding that sweet spot where ambition meets feasibility.

The skill of problem selection becomes even more critical when we consider opportunity cost. Time and resources spent on one problem mean we can't spend them on another. So choosing poorly doesn't just result in minimal impact - it actively prevents us from working on potentially more valuable problems.

This is why mentors often emphasize problem selection as a key lesson. They've learned through experience that raw talent and hard work, while necessary, aren't sufficient. The choice of which mountain to climb often matters more than how skilled we are at climbing.

Guide For Better Problem Selection

Assess potential impact and scope
Consider both the immediate value and potential downstream effects
Look for problems that, if solved, would unlock or enable solutions to other problems
Think about how many people or systems would benefit from a solution

Evaluate tractability
Break down the problem into smaller components to assess feasibility
Look for clear paths to making incremental progress
Consider whether you have or can acquire the necessary resources and capabilities
Be realistic about time constraints and available tools/methods

Identify your competitive advantage
Find problems where your unique skills, knowledge, or position give you an edge
Consider whether you have access to special resources or data
Look for underexplored areas where you can make meaningful contributions

Check for timeliness
Consider whether the problem is ripe for solving given current technology and knowledge
Look for problems where recent developments have created new opportunities
Think about whether solutions would be adoptable in the current environment

Balance novelty and foundation
Look for problems that build on existing knowledge but push into new territory
Avoid problems that are either too well-studied or completely unexplored
Consider whether you can leverage established methods in novel ways

Test for concrete outcomes
Ensure you can define what success looks like
Look for problems where progress can be measured
Consider whether partial solutions would still be valuable

Unstarred

Dunk (exclude from study)

Better Problem Selection

Review Questions

Todos

Sensemaker